Cardiovascular

Acute ischemic stroke despite NOAC therapy in atrial fibrillation: Clinical factors associated with AIS in a 2-center observational case-control study.

TL;DR

Among NOAC-treated patients with atrial fibrillation, prior stroke, cardiovascular comorbidities, and prescribed reduced-dose NOAC use were strongly associated with acute ischemic stroke, while inflammatory markers measured during acute stroke had limited additional value.

Key Findings

Prior stroke was the strongest independent factor associated with acute ischemic stroke in NOAC-treated atrial fibrillation patients.

  • Adjusted odds ratio for prior stroke was 32.79, the highest of all factors examined
  • This association was identified through multivariable logistic regression analysis
  • The study included 112 AIS cases and 210 outpatient controls without AIS
  • Patients with AIS more often had a history of prior stroke compared to controls in unadjusted comparisons as well

Prescribed reduced-dose NOAC use was independently associated with acute ischemic stroke in adjusted analysis.

  • Adjusted odds ratio for prescribed reduced-dose NOAC use was 2.55
  • Patients with AIS were more often prescribed reduced-dose NOACs than controls in unadjusted group comparisons
  • All patients had received NOAC therapy for at least 3 months prior to the study assessment
  • The study did not assess adherence, only prescribed dose

Coronary artery disease was independently associated with acute ischemic stroke with an odds ratio of 3.47.

  • Adjusted OR = 3.47 for coronary artery disease
  • Patients with AIS more often had coronary artery disease than controls in unadjusted comparisons
  • Other cardiovascular comorbidities including hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and chronic kidney disease were also more prevalent in AIS patients
  • Coronary artery disease ranked as the second strongest independent factor after prior stroke

Female sex, diabetes mellitus, and C-reactive protein were each independently associated with acute ischemic stroke.

  • Adjusted OR for female sex was 2.26
  • Adjusted OR for diabetes mellitus was 1.99
  • Adjusted OR for C-reactive protein was 1.10 per mg/L increase
  • CRP was measured during the acute stroke hospitalization, which the authors note limits interpretation of its role as a predisposing factor

Both HAS-BLED and CHA2DS2-VASc scores distinguished AIS cases from controls with high discriminative ability in exploratory ROC analyses.

  • HAS-BLED AUC = 0.881 (95% CI: 0.844–0.918)
  • CHA2DS2-VASc AUC = 0.840 (95% CI: 0.795–0.885)
  • These analyses were described as exploratory
  • The authors noted these findings do not estimate stroke incidence or future stroke risk due to the case-control design

AIS patients were older and had higher prevalence of multiple comorbidities compared to NOAC-treated AF controls without AIS.

  • AIS patients were older than controls at the time of study assessment
  • AIS group had higher rates of hypertension, diabetes mellitus, coronary artery disease, chronic kidney disease, and prior stroke
  • The study was a retrospective 2-center case-control design with 322 total patients (112 AIS cases, 210 controls)
  • All participants had non-valvular AF and had received NOAC therapy for at least 3 months

Inflammatory markers measured during the acute stroke period provided limited additional discriminative value beyond established clinical factors.

  • C-reactive protein was statistically associated with AIS in adjusted analysis (OR = 1.10 per mg/L), but authors concluded inflammatory markers had 'limited additional value'
  • CRP was measured during acute hospitalization, making it difficult to distinguish pre-existing inflammation from acute stroke-related inflammation
  • The authors highlighted this as a limitation in interpreting the role of inflammatory markers
  • Prospective validation was recommended before applying these findings clinically

What This Means

This research suggests that among people with atrial fibrillation (an irregular heart rhythm) who are already taking newer blood thinners (NOACs) to prevent stroke, certain factors are still linked to a higher chance of having a stroke. The study compared 112 patients who had an acute stroke despite being on these medications to 210 similar patients who had not had a stroke. The strongest factor was having had a previous stroke — people with a prior stroke were about 33 times more likely to be in the stroke group. Other factors linked to stroke included coronary artery disease, being prescribed a lower dose of the blood thinner, being female, having diabetes, and having higher levels of a blood marker of inflammation (C-reactive protein). One particularly notable finding is that being prescribed a reduced dose of the NOAC medication was associated with about 2.5 times higher odds of being in the stroke group. This raises questions about whether some patients are being prescribed lower doses when they may benefit from standard doses, though the study could not determine whether patients were actually taking their medications as prescribed. Standard clinical risk scores — CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED — were both good at distinguishing stroke patients from non-stroke patients, with high accuracy (AUC values of 0.84 and 0.88 respectively). This research suggests that even when patients with atrial fibrillation are on anticoagulation therapy, those with a history of stroke, heart disease, diabetes, or who are prescribed reduced-dose anticoagulants remain at higher risk. However, because this was a case-control study looking back at existing records, it cannot be used to predict future stroke risk or determine how often strokes occur. The authors emphasize that these findings need to be confirmed in future prospective studies before they can guide clinical practice.

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Citation

Bastug Gul Z, Danisman N, Ozbezen Kiziltan E, Yildirim Ozdemir G, Kabeloglu V, Yazan S, et al.. (2026). Acute ischemic stroke despite NOAC therapy in atrial fibrillation: Clinical factors associated with AIS in a 2-center observational case-control study.. Medicine. https://doi.org/10.1097/MD.0000000000051189