In a single-center retrospective cohort of 327 hospitalized patients with acute herpetic neuralgia, VTE incidence was 7.95%, and FIB, FDP, NRS score, and thrombotic risk score were independent predictors that were combined into a nomogram with an AUC of 0.853, though external validation in larger multicenter cohorts is warranted before clinical implementation.
The incidence of VTE among hospitalized patients with acute herpetic neuralgia was 7.95%.
LASSO regression followed by multivariable logistic regression identified four independent predictors of VTE: FIB, FDP, NRS score, and thrombotic risk score.
Higher fibrinogen (FIB) was associated with lower VTE risk, acting as a protective factor.
Higher FDP, NRS pain score, and thrombotic risk score were each independent risk factors for VTE.
The nomogram prediction model showed good discrimination, with an AUC of 0.853.
At the optimal cutoff the model had a sensitivity of 0.731 and specificity of 0.877, with good calibration and clinical applicability.
The authors conclude the model can predict VTE risk in AHN patients but requires external validation before clinical implementation.
This study looked at patients hospitalized with acute herpetic neuralgia, the nerve pain that occurs with shingles, to see which of them were more likely to develop blood clots in the veins (venous thromboembolism, or VTE) during their stay. Of 327 patients treated at one Chinese hospital, 26 (about 8%) developed a VTE. Four factors were independently linked to VTE: blood levels of fibrinogen and fibrin degradation products (FDP), self-reported pain intensity (NRS score), and a thrombotic risk score. Higher FDP, pain, and thrombotic risk score were linked to higher clot risk, while higher fibrinogen was linked to lower risk. The researchers combined these into a prediction tool (a nomogram) that distinguished patients who did and did not develop clots fairly well (AUC 0.853). This research suggests such a tool could help clinicians identify high-risk patients with shingles-related pain for closer monitoring or prevention. However, the study was retrospective, done at one hospital, and had few VTE cases, so the tool needs testing in larger, multicenter groups before it could be used in routine care.
Wang C, Wang G, Liu B, Gao Q, Du C, Li L. (2026). Analysis of risk factors for venous thromboembolism in hospitalized patients with acute herpetic neuralgia and construction of a predictive nomogram model.. Frontiers in neurology. https://doi.org/10.3389/fneur.2026.1877838