MOZAIC, an AI framework for donor-recipient microbiome matching, achieves 88% AUC in forecasting post-FMT microbiome convergence and retrospectively simulates a 1.44-fold improvement in clinical response rates (from 49.4% to 71.0%) over baseline.
Key Findings
Results
Post-FMT microbiome convergence of recipients toward donors is robustly associated with clinical efficacy across multiple diseases.
Analysis was performed on multi-kingdom and functional profiles from pre- and post-FMT metagenomes
Dataset included 515 FMTs across 30 cohorts and 12 diseases
94 metagenomes from 44 FMTs were newly collected for this study
The association between convergence and clinical efficacy was observed across diseases, suggesting a generalizable mechanism
Results
The MOZAIC framework achieved high predictive accuracy for post-FMT microbial convergence.
MOZAIC stands for Microbiome Matching Optimization via Artificial Intelligence
Average area under the curve (AUC) of 0.88 for forecasting microbiome convergence
Accuracy and recall both exceeded 0.80 in forecasting microbiome convergence
The framework integrates multi-dimensional donor-recipient microbiota features
Results
MOZAIC achieved 78.7% accuracy in predicting clinical outcomes of FMT.
Clinical outcome prediction was performed retrospectively
The model was tested across multiple disease indications represented in the 30 cohorts
Prediction of clinical outcomes was derived from the same multi-dimensional microbiota feature integration used for convergence prediction
Results
Retrospective simulation using MOZAIC demonstrated a 1.44-fold improvement in clinical response rates over baseline matching.
Baseline clinical response rate was 49.4%
MOZAIC-optimized donor-recipient matching simulated a response rate of 71.0%
This represents a 1.44-fold improvement over the unoptimized baseline
The improvement was demonstrated through retrospective simulation rather than a prospective clinical trial
Methods
Multi-kingdom and functional microbiome profiles were analyzed to characterize donor-recipient microbiota features used in the matching framework.
Analysis included multi-kingdom profiling (beyond just bacteria, potentially including fungi, viruses, etc.) and functional profiling
Both pre- and post-FMT metagenomes were analyzed
The multi-dimensional feature integration was central to MOZAIC's predictive performance
Data spanned 30 cohorts and 12 distinct diseases
Results
Microbiome convergence was established as a key mediator of FMT clinical efficacy.
Convergence refers to the post-FMT shift of recipients' microbiome profiles toward those of their donors
This mediating role was identified across a broad range of gastrointestinal and other diseases
The finding supports microbiome convergence as a mechanistic explanation for variable FMT outcomes
The authors describe this as establishing convergence as 'a key mediator of FMT'
Conclusions
MOZAIC is described as a scalable tool intended for precision matching in microbiota-based therapies beyond FMT.
The framework is positioned as applicable to microbiota-based therapies broadly, not only FMT
Scalability is highlighted as a key feature of the tool
The study was based on retrospective data; prospective clinical validation is implied as a future step
The framework integrates multi-dimensional donor-recipient microbiota features to enable precision matching
What This Means
Fecal microbiota transplantation (FMT) — a procedure where gut bacteria from a healthy donor are transferred to a patient — has shown promise for treating various gastrointestinal diseases, but results vary widely between patients. This research suggests that a key reason for this variability is whether the patient's gut microbiome successfully 'converges' toward resembling the donor's microbiome after transplantation. By analyzing over 500 FMT procedures across 30 research groups and 12 different diseases, the researchers found that this convergence was consistently linked to better clinical outcomes.
To harness this finding, the researchers developed an AI tool called MOZAIC that analyzes detailed profiles of both the donor's and recipient's gut microbiomes — including bacteria, other microorganisms, and their functional characteristics — to predict whether a given donor-recipient pair will achieve good microbiome convergence, and ultimately a good clinical response. The tool correctly predicted microbiome convergence with an AUC of 0.88 (a measure of accuracy where 1.0 is perfect) and predicted clinical outcomes with nearly 79% accuracy.
This research suggests that rather than randomly assigning donors to FMT recipients, using AI-guided matching could substantially improve treatment success rates. In a retrospective simulation, MOZAIC's matching strategy increased the predicted clinical response rate from about 49% to 71% — a 1.44-fold improvement. If validated in prospective clinical trials, this approach could make FMT a more reliable and personalized therapy for diseases including recurrent gut infections, inflammatory bowel disease, and potentially other conditions.
Su Q, Chen S, Lau L, Lui R, Wang Y, Xu Z, et al.. (2026). Artificial intelligence-driven donor-recipient gut microbiome matching for optimized fecal microbiota transplantation.. Cell reports. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.celrep.2026.117301