Higher METS-VF is independently and linearly associated with increased subsequent all-cause and cardiovascular mortality among individuals with a history of stroke.
Key Findings
Results
METS-VF was an independent predictor of all-cause mortality in stroke patients in fully adjusted models.
Hazard ratio for all-cause mortality: HR 1.62 (95% CI, 1.05–2.50)
Study included 1,557 adults with a history of stroke from NHANES 1999–2018
During a median follow-up of 80 months, 665 all-cause deaths occurred
Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used with full adjustment for demographic and clinical covariates
Results
METS-VF was an independent predictor of cardiovascular mortality in stroke patients in fully adjusted models.
Hazard ratio for cardiovascular mortality: HR 1.81 (95% CI, 1.09–3.67)
262 cardiovascular deaths occurred during the median follow-up of 80 months
Cardiovascular mortality data were obtained via linkage to the National Death Index
The association was stronger for cardiovascular mortality than for all-cause mortality
Results
Participants in the highest METS-VF tertile exhibited the greatest risk of both all-cause and cardiovascular mortality.
METS-VF was stratified into tertiles for comparison
Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to illustrate survival differences across tertiles
The gradient of risk increased with higher tertile membership
These associations remained robust across various demographic and clinical subgroups
Results
Restricted cubic spline analyses confirmed significant linear dose-response relationships between METS-VF and both mortality outcomes, with no evidence of nonlinearity.
RCS analyses were used to model the shape of the association between METS-VF and mortality
No statistically significant nonlinear trend was detected for either all-cause or cardiovascular mortality
The linear relationship suggests that risk increases continuously with higher METS-VF values
This linear pattern was confirmed after full covariate adjustment
Methods
The study population consisted of 1,557 stroke survivors drawn from a nationally representative survey over nearly two decades.
Data sourced from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 1999–2018
All participants had a self-reported history of stroke
Mortality outcomes were ascertained through linkage to the National Death Index
Median follow-up duration was 80 months
Background
Traditional anthropometric indices are noted to inadequately capture the metabolic burden of visceral adiposity, motivating use of METS-VF as a novel indicator.
METS-VF is described as 'a novel indicator of visceral fat-related metabolic activity'
The authors highlight that visceral adiposity is linked to adverse cardiometabolic outcomes
METS-VF is characterized as 'highly accessible' compared to imaging-based measures of visceral fat
The prognostic value of METS-VF in stroke patients had not previously been established
What This Means
This research studied whether a newer measure of harmful belly fat, called the Metabolic Score for Visceral Fat (METS-VF), could predict the risk of death in people who have had a stroke. Using data from nearly 1,600 stroke survivors followed for an average of about 6.5 years in a large U.S. national health survey, the researchers found that people with higher METS-VF scores were significantly more likely to die from any cause or from heart and blood vessel disease. Specifically, those with the highest scores had roughly 62% greater risk of all-cause death and 81% greater risk of cardiovascular death compared to those with lower scores, even after accounting for many other health factors.
The relationship between METS-VF and mortality was found to be linear — meaning risk rose steadily as the score increased, with no threshold effect or plateau. This pattern held consistently across different demographic and clinical subgroups of stroke survivors. Unlike measures such as BMI or waist circumference alone, METS-VF is designed to better reflect the metabolic activity of deep abdominal fat, which is thought to be more harmful than fat stored elsewhere in the body.
This research suggests that METS-VF, which can be calculated using relatively simple and widely available measurements, may be a useful tool for identifying stroke survivors who are at higher risk of dying and who might benefit most from intensive follow-up or secondary prevention efforts. The findings point to visceral fat metabolism as an important target for monitoring and potentially intervening in people recovering from stroke.
Kuang B, Zou Y. (2026). Association between the metabolic score for visceral fat and mortality outcomes in stroke patients: A national cohort study.. Medicine. https://doi.org/10.1097/MD.0000000000050680