Association of trajectories of sex-specific quintiles of predicted lean mass and risk of cardiovascular disease: a prospective cohort study.

Higher or increasing predicted lean mass trajectories were associated with lower risk of cardiovascular disease compared to the low-stable group.

• Low-increasing group: HR 0.89 (95% CI: 0.81–0.99)
• Moderate-increasing group: HR 0.82 (95% CI: 0.74–0.92)
• High-stable group: HR 0.81 (95% CI: 0.71–0.91)
• All HRs were adjusted for covariates and compared against the low-stable reference group
• The moderate-decreasing group was not reported as showing a statistically significant reduction in CVD risk

A total of 3,413 participants developed cardiovascular disease over a median follow-up of 10.03 years.

• 43,299 participants were included in the study
• Participants were drawn from the Kailuan study, an ongoing prospective cohort study
• Median follow-up duration was 10.03 years
• CVD incidence was tracked from the 2010/2011 survey onward

Five distinct lean mass trajectory groups were identified using group-based trajectory modeling.

• Trajectories were derived from the 2006/2008 survey to the 2010/2011 survey
• The five groups were: low-stable, low-increasing, moderate-decreasing, moderate-increasing, and high-stable
• Trajectories were based on sex-specific quintiles of predicted lean mass
• Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the association between trajectories and CVD risk

Conventional body composition indicators such as BMI, waist circumference, and waist-to-hip ratio do not adequately reflect lean mass, which plays a crucial role in metabolic health.

• The study was motivated by the limitation of existing anthropometric measures in capturing body composition
• Evidence regarding the longitudinal relationship between lean mass and CVD risk was described as limited prior to this study
• Predicted lean mass was used as the primary exposure variable to address this gap