Associations between early-life unpredictability and mental health during the Israel-Hamas war.

Psychological distress and emotion dysregulation increased co-dependently after the Israel-Hamas war started on October 7, 2023.

• Participants (N = 720) were adult Israeli Jews assessed twice before the war and twice during the first six months of the war.
• Measures used were the DERS-18 for emotion dysregulation and SCL-10R for general psychological distress.
• Multilevel models indicated co-dependent increases in both outcomes following war onset.
• The study used a longitudinal design with four assessment time points spanning the pre-war and early war periods.

Early-life unpredictability was associated with greater psychological distress and emotion dysregulation before the war.

• Retrospective reports of early-life unpredictability were collected at T1 regarding the first 10 years of life.
• Early-life unpredictability predicted higher baseline levels of both psychological distress and emotion dysregulation prior to the war.
• This finding is consistent with life history models of development and psychopathology positing early unpredictability as a risk factor for emotion dysregulation in adulthood.

Early-life unpredictability was associated with a larger increase in psychological distress after the war started.

• Multilevel models showed a significant interaction between early-life unpredictability and war onset on psychological distress trajectories.
• This finding is consistent with the sensitization hypothesis, which posits that early adversity effects are particularly manifested in currently stressful environments.
• The effect was specific to psychological distress trajectories following war onset.

Early-life unpredictability was associated with a greater increase in psychological distress among war-exposed individuals specifically.

• Greater war exposure moderated the relationship between early-life unpredictability and increases in psychological distress.
• This suggests an interaction between early developmental risk factors and current stressor severity.
• The finding supports the sensitization hypothesis that pre-existing vulnerabilities from early-life unpredictability are amplified under conditions of acute stress such as war exposure.

The study design captured longitudinal trajectories of mental health before and during the war using a sample of adult Israeli Jews.

• Sample size was N = 720 adult Israeli Jews.
• Participants were assessed at four time points: twice before and twice during the first six months of the war.
• Emotion dysregulation was measured with the DERS-18 and psychological distress with the SCL-10R.
• Early-life unpredictability was assessed retrospectively at T1, covering the first 10 years of life.
• Multilevel models were used to analyze trajectories and moderation effects.