Cardiovascular

Associations of access to exercise opportunities and physical inactivity with cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic mortality: a nationwide ecological study.

TL;DR

Limited access to exercise opportunities and higher physical inactivity are associated with elevated total CKM mortality, with cardiovascular disease being the predominant driver, though associations with diabetes and renal failure showed unexpected heterogeneity.

Key Findings

Greater access to exercise opportunities was inversely associated with total cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic (CKM) mortality at the county level.

  • Q4 vs. Q1 comparison yielded a Rate Ratio (RR) of 0.89 (95% CI: 0.87–0.90) for total CKM mortality
  • Cardiovascular mortality specifically decreased with better access (RR 0.89)
  • Models were adjusted for year only (Model 1) or comprehensive demographic and socioeconomic covariates (Model 2)
  • Data spanned 2014–2019 using CDC WONDER mortality data and County Health Rankings for physical activity measures

Higher physical inactivity was associated with an overall elevation in total CKM mortality, primarily driven by cardiovascular disease.

  • Q4 vs. Q1 comparison yielded an RR of 1.23 (95% CI: 1.22–1.25) for total CKM mortality
  • Cardiovascular disease was the predominant driver with an RR of 1.24
  • Diabetes mortality showed a modest increase (RR 1.23) but with a non-monotonic gradient across quartiles
  • Renal failure mortality unexpectedly decreased in the highest inactivity quartile

Diabetes and renal failure mortality showed unexpectedly higher rates in counties with greater access to exercise opportunities.

  • While cardiovascular mortality decreased with better exercise access (RR 0.89), the benefit was 'not uniform across CKM components'
  • Diabetes and renal failure mortality showed 'unexpectedly higher rates in high-access counties'
  • This finding was described as contrary to expectations, suggesting ecological confounding or residual confounding by sociodemographic factors
  • This pattern persisted even after adjustment for comprehensive demographic and socioeconomic covariates in Model 2

A clear geographic gradient was identified, with Southern counties having the least exercise access, highest inactivity, and greatest CKM mortality burden.

  • Counties in the South had the least exercise access and highest inactivity levels
  • Southern counties also carried the greatest CKM mortality burden
  • This geographic pattern was identified as part of the ecological analysis across US counties from 2014–2019
  • The study used quasi-Poisson generalized linear models to estimate rate ratios

The associations between exercise access/physical inactivity and CKM mortality varied in magnitude across sex, race, and urbanization subgroups.

  • General patterns were observed across most demographic and geographic subgroups
  • Effect magnitudes varied by sex, race, and urbanization
  • Stratification by these subgroups was conducted to explore heterogeneity
  • The study was an ecological design using county-level data, so individual-level inferences cannot be drawn

The study used a county-level ecological design with quasi-Poisson generalized linear models to estimate associations between physical activity environment and CKM mortality.

  • Data from 2014–2019 were obtained from CDC WONDER for CKM mortality and County Health Rankings for physical activity measures
  • County-level age-adjusted CKM mortality rates were compared across quartiles of access to exercise opportunities and physical inactivity
  • Two models were used: Model 1 adjusted for year only; Model 2 adjusted for comprehensive demographic and socioeconomic covariates
  • CKM mortality included three components: cardiovascular, kidney (renal failure), and metabolic (diabetes)

What This Means

This research suggests that where people live—specifically whether their county has good access to gyms, parks, and other exercise facilities—is linked to how many people die from a cluster of related conditions including heart disease, kidney failure, and diabetes (collectively called cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic or CKM syndrome). Analyzing data from US counties between 2014 and 2019, the study found that counties with better exercise access had about 11% lower total CKM death rates compared to counties with the worst access, and counties where more residents were physically inactive had about 23% higher CKM death rates. Southern US counties stood out as having the worst combination of limited exercise access, high inactivity, and high CKM mortality. However, the picture was more complicated than expected when looking at the three components of CKM separately. The benefits of exercise access were clearest for heart disease deaths, but surprisingly, counties with better exercise access actually had higher rates of diabetes and kidney failure deaths. Similarly, while high inactivity was strongly linked to more cardiovascular deaths, kidney failure deaths were unexpectedly lower in the most inactive counties. These unexpected patterns likely reflect the complexity of ecological studies—county-level data cannot prove that individuals who are inactive are the ones dying, and many other community-level factors could be influencing these results. This research suggests that improving access to exercise in underserved communities—particularly in the South—and reducing population-level physical inactivity could be important strategies for reducing the combined burden of heart, kidney, and metabolic disease deaths. However, the inconsistent findings for kidney and diabetes mortality highlight that the relationship between physical environment and these specific conditions is complex and warrants further investigation before drawing firm policy conclusions.

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Citation

Zhao C, Zhu Z, Zhang J, Ren Z, Liu H. (2026). Associations of access to exercise opportunities and physical inactivity with cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic mortality: a nationwide ecological study.. Frontiers in public health. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2026.1924014