Burden of disease for multiple myeloma in China and the Asia-Pacific region, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study.

China experienced dramatic increases in multiple myeloma age-standardized burden metrics between 1990 and 2021.

• Age-standardized incidence in China reached an increase of 918.69% over the study period.
• Age-standardized mortality increased by 326% in China.
• Age-standardized DALY increased by 622.15% in China.
• These increases were tracked using the GBD 2021 database with joinpoint regression and APC models.

Population aging accounted for approximately 60% of the increase in multiple myeloma burden in East Asia.

• Decomposition analysis was used to measure the contributions of aging, population growth, and epidemiological transition.
• Approximately 60% of East Asia's increase in MM burden was attributed to population aging.
• Most occurrences of MM were found in individuals over 70 years of age.
• The APC (Age-Period-Cohort) model was used to deconstruct drivers of temporal patterns.

Males were more affected by multiple myeloma than females across the Asia-Pacific region.

• Male disease burden was higher than female disease burden throughout the study period from 1990 to 2021.
• Male disease burden is expected to continue to be higher than female disease burden in future projections.
• ARIMA and Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) models were used for future predictions.
• China's disease burden was described as 'male-dominated, age-driven, and positively correlated with SDI.'

MM prevalence showed a positive correlation with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) across the Asia-Pacific region, with Japan as an exception.

• MM incidence correlated positively with SDI in most of the region.
• Japan was an exception where MM prevalence varied negatively with SDI.
• Early diagnosis was common in low-income communities, as identified in the analysis.
• Health inequalities were measured using the slope inequality index (SII) and concentration index (CI).

Future projections indicate rising MM incidence in China while fatality rates are expected to stabilize.

• Disease incidence is predicted to rise in China based on ARIMA and BAPC modeling.
• Fatality rates are projected to steady rather than continue increasing.
• Future incidence increases are expected especially among the elderly and males.
• The Japanese model was highlighted as a potential source of 'innovative global tactics' for disease management.

The global burden of multiple myeloma increased between 1990 and 2021, with particular growth in China and the Asia-Pacific region.

• Data were extracted from the GBD 2021 database covering incidence, mortality, and DALYs by age and sex.
• The study covered the Asia-Pacific region from 1990 to 2021.
• Temporal patterns were studied using joinpoint regression.
• MM incidence, mortality, and DALY all increased both globally and in the Asia-Pacific area over the study period.