Cardiovascular

Cardiovascular adverse events of tocilizumab and baricitinib in COVID-19 and rheumatoid arthritis: A real-world disproportionality and machine learning analysis.

TL;DR

Our findings suggest indication-dependent cardiovascular signals when immunomodulators are repurposed for acute viral infections, underscoring the need for context-aware evaluation in drug repurposing.

Key Findings

Among 17,750,053 FAERS reports from January 2010 to June 2025, 5994 cardiovascular adverse events were identified for baricitinib or tocilizumab, with most attributed to tocilizumab.

  • Baricitinib accounted for 965 CVAEs and tocilizumab for 5029 CVAEs.
  • Data source was the FDA Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS), January 2010 to June 2025.
  • Six CVAE categories were examined: cardiac arrhythmias, CNS vascular disorders, embolic and thrombotic events, ischemic heart disease, noninfectious myocarditis/pericarditis, and other cardiac disorders.

Baricitinib's cardiovascular disproportionality signal was higher in the post-COVID-19 EUA period than the pre-EUA period.

  • IC rose from 0.84 (IC025, 0.59) to 1.51 (IC025, 1.39).
  • ROR rose from 1.89 (95% CI, 1.62-2.21) to 3.22 (2.98-3.48).
  • Analyses were stratified by pre- and post-EUA periods.

Tocilizumab's cardiovascular disproportionality signal was also higher in the post-EUA period than the pre-EUA period, though weaker than baricitinib's.

  • IC rose from 0.22 (IC025, 0.16) to 0.54 (IC025, 0.47).
  • ROR rose from 1.18 (95% CI, 1.14-1.23) to 1.50 (1.43-1.57).

Baricitinib used for COVID-19 showed the highest cardiovascular disproportionality of all drug-indication combinations analyzed.

  • IC was 2.90 (IC025, 2.70).
  • ROR was 11.95 (95% CI, 10.33-13.83).
  • Indication stratification compared COVID-19 versus rheumatoid arthritis.

Gradient boosting machine models achieved the highest discrimination among the machine learning models for both drugs, with modest performance.

  • AUROC was 0.728 for baricitinib and 0.702 for tocilizumab.
  • Models were trained to characterize risk patterns for each drug.

SHAP interpretation identified different indication features as most influential for each drug's cardiovascular risk pattern.

  • COVID-19 indication was highlighted for baricitinib.
  • Rheumatoid arthritis indication was highlighted for tocilizumab.
  • Feature contributions were interpreted using SHapley Additive exPlanations.

The authors conclude that cardiovascular signals depend on indication when immunomodulators are repurposed for acute viral infections.

  • Acute hyperinflammation and systemic stress in COVID-19 may amplify cardiovascular risk.
  • The authors emphasize context-aware evaluation in drug repurposing.
  • Findings are based on spontaneous reporting data, which indicate disproportionality signals rather than causal risk.

What This Means

This study looked at a large US database of spontaneously reported side effects (FAERS) to compare heart and blood-vessel problems reported with two anti-inflammatory drugs, tocilizumab and baricitinib. Both drugs are used for rheumatoid arthritis, and both were also used to treat COVID-19. The researchers examined nearly 6,000 cardiovascular reports, including arrhythmias, strokes, blood clots, ischemic heart disease, and heart inflammation. For both drugs, cardiovascular reports were disproportionately higher after COVID-19 emergency authorization than before. The signal was strongest for baricitinib used for COVID-19, where cardiovascular events were reported far more often relative to other reports in the database than for other drug-use combinations. Machine learning models picked up COVID-19 as an important factor for baricitinib and rheumatoid arthritis for tocilizumab, though the models' predictive ability was only moderate. This research suggests that the cardiovascular safety picture of these drugs may depend on the condition being treated. However, the data come from voluntary reports, which cannot prove that a drug caused a problem or give true rates of risk. The findings point to the need for careful, context-specific safety evaluation when existing drugs are repurposed for new illnesses.

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Citation

Moon J, Lee C, Lee S, Kim M, Wen X, Branda F, et al.. (2026). Cardiovascular adverse events of tocilizumab and baricitinib in COVID-19 and rheumatoid arthritis: A real-world disproportionality and machine learning analysis.. Medicine. https://doi.org/10.1097/MD.0000000000050993