A panel of six microbial-derived metabolites (indoxyl sulfate, choline, 5-hydroxyindole acetic acid, indole propionic acid, kynurenic acid, and kynurenine) classified early cognitive decline with an AUC of 0.79, suggesting these metabolites may serve as putative composite biomarkers for metabolic risk stratification.
Key Findings
Results
Neuroprotective metabolites choline, 5-hydroxyindole acetic acid (5-HIAA), and indole propionic acid (IPA) were lower in SCI and MCI individuals compared to healthy controls.
Multiple linear regression modelling identified these three metabolites as significantly reduced in early cognitive decline groups.
Regression models were adjusted for sex, BMI, age, albumin, liver and kidney function, and background diet.
Study included 50 participants per group (cognitively healthy, SCI, and MCI), matched for age, BMI, and sex (n = 150 total).
Metabolites were measured using mass spectrometry platforms determining serum concentrations.
Results
The cytotoxic metabolite indoxyl sulfate and kynurenic acid were elevated in SCI and MCI participants compared to healthy controls.
Elevated indoxyl sulfate and kynurenic acid were identified via multiple linear regression adjusted for age, sex, BMI, albumin, liver and kidney function, and background diet.
Indoxyl sulfate is described as a cytotoxic metabolite thought to contribute to neuroinflammation, blood-brain barrier dysfunction, and neuronal degeneration.
Measurements were derived from serum samples across the three matched cognitive groups (n = 50 per group).
Results
A random forest algorithm with multiclass classification identified six metabolites as classifiers of early cognitive decline, achieving an AUC of 0.79.
The six metabolites identified were indoxyl sulfate, choline, 5-hydroxyindole acetic acid, IPA, kynurenic acid, and kynurenine.
The random forest model achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.79.
The machine learning approach validated findings from the multiple linear regression analysis.
The panel spanned tryptophan-related compounds and a choline-related metabolite from a broader 33-metabolite panel that also included bile acids and TMAO-related metabolites.
Methods
The study measured a panel of 33 serum metabolites across three cognitive groups using mass spectrometry.
The 33 metabolites comprised 13 tryptophan-related compounds, 15 bile acid compounds, 3 TMAO-related metabolites, and 2 cresol metabolites.
Participants were n = 50 per group across cognitively healthy, subjective cognitive impairment (SCI), and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) groups, matched for age, BMI, and sex.
16S rRNA amplicon sequencing was also employed to identify bacterial taxa associated with metabolic changes.
Both multiple linear regression and machine learning techniques were applied to identify the metabolite panel.
Background
Microbial dysbiosis in early cognitive decline and Alzheimer's disease can modulate levels of microbe-derived metabolites thought to contribute to neuroinflammation, blood-brain barrier dysfunction, and neuronal degeneration.
Microbe-derived metabolites (MDM) are proposed to play a role in the pathophysiology of early cognitive decline.
The precise role of MDM in cognitive decline and their potential value as risk factors is described as 'poorly understood' prior to this study.
The study addresses the gap by profiling MDM across healthy controls, SCI, and MCI participants.
Conclusions
The authors propose that microbial-derived metabolites may serve as putative composite biomarkers for metabolic risk stratification and support development of minimally invasive screening tools.
The six-metabolite panel achieved an AUC of 0.79 in classifying early cognitive decline.
The authors highlight 'potential clinical relevance for metabolic risk stratification' and 'future development of minimally invasive screening tools.'
The study used serum-based measurements, supporting the minimally invasive nature of potential future screening.
Connell E, Sami S, Khondoker M, Minihane A, Pontifex M, Müller M, et al.. (2026). Circulatory dietary and gut-derived metabolites predict early cognitive decline.. Gut microbes. https://doi.org/10.1080/19490976.2026.2649487