Mental Health

Consistent predictors of adolescent substance use: cross-sectional comparison across five countries

TL;DR

While levels of alcohol and drug use differ across countries, the core predictors are consistent: psychological distress and early adversity elevate risk, whereas conscientiousness and agreeableness are protective and extraversion signals vulnerability.

Key Findings

Alcohol use was higher in Sweden and Serbia and lower in Morocco and Vietnam compared with the United States, while drug use was highest in the United States and lower in all other countries.

  • Sample consisted of 5,108 upper-secondary students aged 15–19 from five countries: United States, Sweden, Serbia, Morocco, and Vietnam.
  • Drug use was lowest in Vietnam and Serbia compared to the United States.
  • Outcomes were measured using the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) and the Drug Use Disorders Identification Test (DUDIT).
  • Cross-sectional online survey design was used across all five countries.

Psychological distress showed the strongest positive association with both alcohol and drug use outcomes.

  • Psychological distress was identified as the strongest predictor among all variables examined.
  • The association held for both AUDIT (alcohol) and DUDIT (drug) scores.
  • This finding was consistent across all five countries examined.
  • Psychological distress was included as a predictor alongside country, age, gender, adverse childhood experiences, and Big Five personality traits.

Older age predicted higher scores on both the AUDIT and DUDIT measures.

  • Age range of participants was 15–19 years.
  • The age effect was observed for both alcohol use and drug use outcomes.
  • Age was included as a covariate in the cross-sectional regression models.

Gender was unrelated to alcohol use, but drug use was highest among young men.

  • No significant association was found between gender and AUDIT scores.
  • Male gender was associated with higher DUDIT scores.
  • Gender was assessed as a predictor across all five country samples.

Family alcohol problems and family drug problems predicted higher alcohol use, while physical and psychological abuse were not significant predictors of alcohol use.

  • Four adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) were examined: family alcohol problems, family drug problems, physical abuse, and psychological abuse.
  • Family alcohol problems and family drug problems were both significant positive predictors of AUDIT scores.
  • Physical abuse and psychological abuse did not significantly predict alcohol use (AUDIT).
  • The ACE predictors were examined alongside other predictors in a multivariate model.

Family drug problems, physical abuse, and psychological abuse predicted higher drug use, while family alcohol problems did not significantly predict drug use.

  • Family drug problems was a significant positive predictor of DUDIT scores.
  • Both physical abuse and psychological abuse were significant positive predictors of drug use.
  • Family alcohol problems was not a significant predictor of DUDIT scores.
  • This pattern of ACE associations for drug use differed from the pattern found for alcohol use.

Extraversion predicted higher substance use, while conscientiousness, agreeableness, openness, and neuroticism predicted lower substance use.

  • Big Five personality traits were assessed as predictors for both AUDIT and DUDIT outcomes.
  • Extraversion was associated with higher scores on both alcohol and drug use measures.
  • Conscientiousness and agreeableness were protective against both alcohol and drug use.
  • Openness predicted lower use for both outcomes.
  • Neuroticism predicted lower use, but this association was described as 'more modest' for alcohol specifically.
  • Personality associations were described as 'consistent' across the five countries.

The associations between predictors and substance use outcomes were largely stable across the five countries examined.

  • Cross-national consistency was assessed for psychological distress, ACEs, and personality trait associations.
  • The stability of associations held despite substantial differences in absolute levels of alcohol and drug use between countries.
  • Countries represented diverse cultural and geographic regions: North America, Northern Europe, Southern Europe, North Africa, and Southeast Asia.

What This Means

This research suggests that while teenagers in different countries drink alcohol and use drugs at very different rates, the same underlying factors tend to predict substance use regardless of where adolescents live. The study surveyed over 5,100 high school students aged 15–19 across the United States, Sweden, Serbia, Morocco, and Vietnam, finding that Swedish and Serbian teens reported more alcohol use than American teens, while Moroccan and Vietnamese teens reported less. For drug use, American teens reported the highest rates, with all other countries reporting lower use. Despite these country-level differences in how much substances are used, the factors that predict who is more or less likely to use them were remarkably similar across all five nations. The strongest predictor of both alcohol and drug use was psychological distress — teens who reported more mental health struggles were more likely to use both alcohol and drugs. Early life adversity also mattered, though differently depending on the substance: growing up with family members who had alcohol or drug problems predicted higher alcohol use, while experiences of physical or psychological abuse — along with family drug problems — predicted higher drug use. Personality traits also played a consistent role across countries: teens who scored higher on extraversion tended to use more substances, while those who scored higher on conscientiousness, agreeableness, and openness tended to use less. Older teens and young men were more likely to report drug use, while gender did not predict alcohol use. This research suggests that prevention programs do not need to be entirely reinvented for each cultural context — instead, approaches that address mental health, trauma, and personality-based risk and protective factors may be broadly applicable across different countries. The findings point toward the value of combining trauma-informed mental health support with programs designed to build protective personality traits like conscientiousness and agreeableness in adolescents. The authors note limitations including uneven numbers of participants across countries and the fact that data collection occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, which may have affected results.

Have a question about this study?

Citation

Kourosh Bador, Anis Sfendla, H. T. M. Nguyen, Catrin Johansson, Nóra Kerekes. (2026). Consistent predictors of adolescent substance use: cross-sectional comparison across five countries. Frontiers in Psychology. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2026.1737472