Development of a Predictive Model for Pulmonary Embolism in Gastrointestinal Cancer Patients with Isolated Distal Deep Vein Thrombosis.

A substantial proportion of gastrointestinal cancer patients with isolated distal deep vein thrombosis developed pulmonary embolism.

• 204 patients with gastrointestinal malignancies diagnosed with IDDVT were retrospectively analyzed from January 2021 to January 2024.
• 86 of 204 patients (42.2%) developed PE.
• PE was confirmed by computed tomography pulmonary angiography.

Univariate analysis identified five factors significantly associated with PE in gastrointestinal cancer patients with IDDVT.

• Age ≥60 years, diabetes mellitus, coronary heart disease, tumor stage, and glucocorticoid use were all significantly associated with PE (P < .05).
• Analysis was performed via univariate logistic regression.

Multivariate logistic regression identified three independent predictors of PE in gastrointestinal cancer patients with IDDVT.

• Age ≥60 years, coronary heart disease, and glucocorticoid use were independently associated with PE (P < 0.05).
• Diabetes mellitus and tumor stage did not remain significant in multivariate analysis.
• The abstract notes 'lack of glucocorticoids' was associated with PE, suggesting glucocorticoid use was protective or inversely associated.

A nomogram-based risk prediction model for PE was constructed based on the three independent predictors.

• The nomogram incorporated age ≥60 years, coronary heart disease, and glucocorticoid use.
• The area under the ROC curve was 0.77 (95% CI 0.71–0.83).
• The model demonstrated a sensitivity of 64.2% and specificity of 76.6%.