What This Means
This research suggests that the burden of stroke — measured by deaths and years of healthy life lost to disability — has been declining steadily across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region from 1990 to 2023. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2023 study covering 21 countries, the researchers found an average annual decline of about 2.6% in stroke-related disability and 2.5% in stroke deaths. Notably, women experienced faster improvements than men across most of the region, though disparities remain. Country-level differences were stark: Qatar saw the fastest improvements while Libya saw the slowest, highlighting how conflict, healthcare infrastructure, and risk factor management shape outcomes differently across the region.
Using a statistical forecasting method called SARIMA, the researchers projected these trends forward to 2050. Their models suggest that if current trends continue, the MENA region could see stroke disability rates fall by nearly 79% (from about 1,895 to 401 per 100,000 people) and stroke death rates fall by about 84% (from 94 to 15 per 100,000 people) by mid-century. The lower bounds of their uncertainty estimates reach zero by around 2043, though the authors caution this reflects statistical uncertainty rather than a guaranteed outcome.
This research suggests that substantial progress in stroke prevention and treatment has been made in MENA over recent decades, likely driven by better management of risk factors like high blood pressure and improved acute stroke care. However, the findings also highlight that progress is uneven across countries and between sexes, and that sustained, equitable investment in stroke prevention, emergency care, and rehabilitation will be needed — particularly in settings affected by conflict or with limited healthcare access — to maintain and accelerate these gains through mid-century.