The high BMI-attributable burden of hypertension-related CKD increased substantially from 1990 to 2021, remains unequally distributed, and is projected to keep rising to 2050, supporting integrated obesity prevention and hypertension control with priority for high-risk regions and older adults.
Global deaths and DALYs from hypertension-related CKD attributable to high BMI rose sharply between 1990 and 2021.
Age-standardized mortality and disability-adjusted life-year rates both increased over the study period.
Regional burden varied, with Central Sub-Saharan Africa having the highest ASMR and High-income North America the fastest increase.
Men had higher age-standardized rates than women, and the age patterns of deaths and DALYs differed.
Crude rates were higher in higher-SDI populations, but the relative burden became more concentrated in lower-SDI populations over time.
Bayesian age-period-cohort projections indicate the age-standardized burden will continue to rise to 2050.
The study concludes the burden is increasing and unequally distributed and supports integrated prevention and control strategies.
This study used data from the Global Burden of Disease project to look at how much kidney disease caused by high blood pressure can be traced to high body weight (high BMI). Between 1990 and 2021, deaths from this cause rose about fivefold, from roughly 36,000 to nearly 180,000 per year, and lost healthy life years rose from about 1 million to 4.3 million. Even after adjusting for population aging and growth, the death rate roughly doubled. The burden differed by place, sex, and age. Central Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest death rate, while High-income North America saw the fastest increase. Men had higher rates than women. Deaths were most common at ages 85-89, while lost healthy years peaked in the early to late 60s. Countries with higher development levels had higher crude rates, but over time the relative burden shifted toward less-developed populations. Projections suggest the death rate could roughly double again by 2050, to about 4.4 per 100,000, though projections are uncertain, especially for lost healthy life years. This research suggests that tackling obesity and high blood pressure together, with attention to higher-risk regions and older adults, may help limit the growing burden. As a modeling study based on estimated data, it describes patterns rather than proving cause and effect for individuals.
Li L, Zhu G, Wang K, Maimaiti S, Wang S, Lu C. (2026). Global burden of chronic kidney disease attributable to hypertension due to high body mass index: projections to 2050.. Renal failure. https://doi.org/10.1080/0886022X.2026.2751889