The global age-standardized mortality rate for aortic aneurysm declined from 2.54 to 1.86 per 100,000 population between 1990 and 2021, though pronounced regional differences persist, and improved behavioral and metabolic risk management could substantially reduce rates to 0.84 by 2050.
In 2021, there were an estimated 153.93 thousand deaths globally due to aortic aneurysm.
The global age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) for aortic aneurysm declined from 1990 to 2021.
Regional disparities in aortic aneurysm burden persist, with high-SDI regions still carrying a significant mortality burden while lower-SDI regions show an increasing trend.
Males consistently exhibited a higher aortic aneurysm burden than females, and burden increased with age.
Tobacco use and high systolic blood pressure were the predominant risk factors for aortic aneurysm-related mortality.
Projections suggest the global ASMR for aortic aneurysm will remain relatively stable under a reference scenario but could be substantially reduced with improved risk management by 2050.
This research suggests that deaths from aortic aneurysms—dangerous bulges in the body's main artery that can burst without warning—have declined globally over the past three decades, but the problem remains significant and varies widely by region. Between 1990 and 2021, the age-adjusted death rate dropped from about 2.54 to 1.86 per 100,000 people worldwide. However, wealthier regions saw the steepest improvements, while lower-income regions actually experienced an increasing burden, highlighting that not all populations have benefited equally from advances in detection and treatment. The study also identified key risk factors driving aortic aneurysm deaths: smoking is the leading risk factor for men, while high blood pressure is the leading risk factor for women. Men overall face a higher burden than women, and risk increases substantially with age. These findings point to clear targets for prevention efforts tailored by sex and region. Looking ahead to 2050, this research suggests that without major changes, death rates will only modestly decline. However, if societies successfully reduce smoking, improve diet, and control obesity at a population level, the death rate could be cut nearly in half compared to doing nothing extra. This underscores that aortic aneurysm is a largely preventable condition, and that investments in public health measures targeting lifestyle and metabolic risk factors could have a major impact on future deaths from this silent but deadly disease.
Jung M, Jeong J, Jo Y, Hong S, Lee S, Kim T, et al.. (2026). Global, Regional, and National Burden of Aortic Aneurysm, 1990-2021, and Projections to 2050.. Journal of Korean medical science. https://doi.org/10.3346/jkms.2026.41.e237