Refugee mental health is shaped by the intersection of identity factors and structural barriers—not trauma exposure alone—with education level, English language proficiency, and region of origin emerging as the strongest predictors of PTSD symptom severity in a CART model.
Key Findings
Results
Education level was identified as the strongest predictor of PTSD symptom severity in the pruned CART model.
The CART analysis used a sample of 610 refugees and asylum seekers assessed at the Boston Center for Refugee Health and Human Rights.
Individuals with some formal education reported higher PTSD symptom scores compared to those without formal education.
Education level was retained as the primary splitting variable in the hierarchical CART model.
PTSD symptom severity was measured using the Harvard Trauma Questionnaire.
Results
English language proficiency was identified as the second strongest predictor of PTSD symptom severity.
Higher English proficiency was associated with higher PTSD symptom scores.
English proficiency was retained in the pruned CART model as a key hierarchical predictor.
This finding suggests that linguistic integration does not straightforwardly buffer against posttraumatic stress, and may reflect increased awareness of systemic barriers.
The CART method allowed detection of nonlinear interactions between English proficiency and other predictors.
Results
Region of origin was identified as the third strongest predictor of PTSD symptom severity.
Individuals originating from regions outside Uganda and Europe reported higher PTSD symptom scores.
Region of origin was retained in the final pruned CART model alongside education and English proficiency.
This variable likely captures differential exposure to structural barriers, discrimination, and legal insecurity based on national origin.
The finding points to the role of geopolitical and contextual factors in shaping post-migration mental health outcomes.
Results
Pre-migration trauma exposure variables were not retained in the final pruned CART model.
Predictors included physical, psychological, and sexual pre-migration trauma exposure.
Pre-migration trauma variables showed moderate importance but were excluded from the final model after pruning.
This highlights the relatively greater influence of post-migration structural conditions over pre-migration trauma in predicting PTSD symptom severity.
The finding challenges exclusively trauma-focused models of refugee mental health.
Methods
The study used Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis to identify hierarchical and nonlinear interactions among predictors of PTSD severity.
The sample consisted of 610 refugees and asylum seekers who completed standardized assessments.
PTSD symptom severity was assessed using the Harvard Trauma Questionnaire.
Predictors spanned pre-migration trauma exposure, identity factors (gender, religion, sexual minority status, education level, region of origin, English proficiency), and post-migration stressors (legal status, employment, work authorization, housing, community involvement).
CART was chosen for its ability to detect nonlinear and hierarchical interaction effects among predictors.
The model was pruned to identify the most robust predictors.
Discussion
Post-migration structural conditions including legal insecurity, social exclusion, and linguistic integration were emphasized as key shapers of refugee mental health and recovery.
Post-migration stressors assessed included legal status, employment, work authorization, housing stability, and community involvement.
The study was guided by Intersectionality Theory and Ecological Systems Theory.
Findings underscore the importance of moving beyond trauma-focused models to address structural and systemic barriers.
The authors highlight legal insecurity, discrimination, and social exclusion as critical targets for intervention to support psychological well-being of forcibly displaced populations.
Ayawvi G, Bowers G, Ng L. (2026). Intersectional insights into refugee mental health: exploring the impact of identity and systemic barriers.. European journal of psychotraumatology. https://doi.org/10.1080/20008066.2026.2622869