Cardiovascular

Long-term incidence and risk factors of atrial fibrillation after percutaneous patent foramen ovale occlusion: a retrospective cohort study.

TL;DR

New-onset atrial fibrillation is common after percutaneous PFO closure, occurring in 11.2% of patients over long-term follow-up, with early postprocedural clustering and independent associations with increasing age, larger occluder device size, and valvular regurgitation.

Key Findings

New-onset atrial fibrillation occurred in 11.2% of patients following percutaneous PFO closure over long-term follow-up.

  • 97 out of 867 patients developed new-onset AF during a median follow-up of 11.7 years (IQR 6.3–16.8 years)
  • The incidence rate was 1.0 per 100 patient-years
  • The study cohort had a median age of 51 years (IQR 42–58), with 47% female patients
  • PFO closure was performed for secondary stroke prevention in 86% of patients
  • Patients were retrospectively included from a single tertiary care centre between 1999 and 2021

AF diagnoses clustered early after PFO closure, with more than a quarter occurring within the first 3 months.

  • 26.8% of all new-onset AF cases occurred within the first 3 months after closure
  • Time-to-event analysis was performed using cumulative incidence functions
  • This early postprocedural clustering pattern was a key temporal finding of the study

Higher age at the time of PFO closure was independently associated with new-onset AF.

  • Hazard ratio of 1.05 per year of age (95% CI 1.03 to 1.07) in multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression
  • This association was statistically significant and identified as an independent risk factor
  • Multivariable analysis adjusted for multiple clinical factors simultaneously

Larger occluder device size was independently associated with new-onset AF after PFO closure.

  • Hazard ratio of 1.09 per mm of device size (95% CI 1.03 to 1.16) in multivariable analysis
  • This finding suggests a potential mechanical or procedural contribution to AF risk
  • Device size was analyzed as a continuous variable in millimeters

Any moderate or severe valvular regurgitation was the strongest independent risk factor for new-onset AF after PFO closure.

  • Hazard ratio of 3.70 (95% CI 1.65 to 8.33) in multivariable analysis
  • This was the largest effect size among the three independently associated factors identified
  • The association was statistically significant and independent of age and device size

The study population was predominantly middle-aged adults undergoing PFO closure primarily for secondary stroke prevention.

  • 867 patients were included, with a median age of 51 years (IQR 42–58)
  • 47% of patients were female
  • 86% of patients underwent PFO closure for secondary stroke prevention (cryptogenic stroke)
  • Patients aged ≥16 years were eligible for inclusion
  • New-onset AF was identified through systematic review of electronic health records

What This Means

This research suggests that a significant proportion of patients who undergo a minimally invasive procedure to close a patent foramen ovale (PFO) — a small hole between the upper chambers of the heart present from birth — will develop atrial fibrillation (AF), an irregular heart rhythm, over the long term. Studying 867 patients over nearly 12 years on average, researchers found that about 1 in 9 patients (11.2%) developed new-onset AF after the closure procedure. Importantly, more than one-quarter of these AF cases appeared within just the first three months after the procedure, suggesting the procedure itself may trigger some cases of AF in the short term. The study also identified three factors that were independently linked to a higher risk of developing AF: being older at the time of the procedure, having a larger closure device implanted, and having moderate or severe leakiness in one or more heart valves (valvular regurgitation). The association with valvular regurgitation was particularly strong, with affected patients having more than 3.5 times the risk of developing AF compared to those without this condition. These findings held up even after accounting for other variables that could influence the results. This research suggests that patients undergoing PFO closure — most of whom have had a stroke and are trying to prevent another — should be monitored closely for irregular heart rhythms, especially in the months immediately following the procedure. Clinicians may want to pay particular attention to older patients, those requiring larger devices, and those with pre-existing valve problems. Because AF itself can increase stroke risk, identifying and managing it after PFO closure is clinically important.

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Citation

Rommens O, Blondeel M, Maes M, Goidts M, Garweg C, Troost E, et al.. (2026). Long-term incidence and risk factors of atrial fibrillation after percutaneous patent foramen ovale occlusion: a retrospective cohort study.. Open heart. https://doi.org/10.1136/openhrt-2026-004344