Higher longitudinal systolic and diastolic blood pressure trajectories were associated with earlier stroke occurrence among newly diagnosed hypertensive patients in Benishangul-Gumuz, Ethiopia, supporting regular blood pressure monitoring and targeted prevention among older adults and patients with comorbidities.
The incidence of stroke among newly diagnosed hypertensive patients was 2.19 per 100 person-years.
Higher current underlying systolic blood pressure was associated with increased stroke risk.
Higher current underlying diastolic blood pressure was associated with increased stroke risk.
Older age (≥65 years) was associated with earlier stroke occurrence.
Comorbidity was associated with earlier stroke occurrence.
Stage II hypertension was associated with earlier stroke occurrence.
Rural residence was associated with a lower hazard of stroke.
Higher longitudinal systolic and diastolic blood pressure trajectories were associated with earlier stroke occurrence.
This study followed 494 people in two hospitals in Benishangul-Gumuz, Ethiopia, who had recently been diagnosed with high blood pressure. Over about nine years, researchers tracked repeated blood pressure readings and when strokes occurred. They used a statistical method that links the changing blood pressure patterns to the timing of stroke. The stroke rate was about 2.19 per 100 person-years of follow-up. The research suggests that people whose systolic and diastolic blood pressure stayed higher over time had strokes earlier. Older age (65 or more), having other medical conditions, and stage II hypertension were also linked to earlier stroke. People living in rural areas had a lower stroke hazard, though the reasons were not established here. These findings suggest that tracking blood pressure over time, rather than at a single visit, may help identify patients at higher risk, particularly older adults and those with other conditions. The study was retrospective and based on two hospitals, and some estimates had wide uncertainty ranges, so results should be interpreted with caution.
Assefa S, Tadesse K, Yenus S, Tegene T, Bekeko S, Abegaz H, et al.. (2026). Longitudinal blood pressure trajectories and time to stroke among hypertensive patients: A Bayesian multivariate joint modeling study in Benishangul-Gumuz, Ethiopia.. PloS one. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0359435