Aging & Longevity

Mapping the diverse trajectories of intrinsic capacity and their key drivers in China's aging population.

TL;DR

The study identified four distinct intrinsic capacity trajectories among Chinese adults aged 50 and older, and found that socio-demographic, health-related, and environmental factors were associated with trajectory membership, with potentially modifiable contextual factors such as household cooking fuel and environmental conditions "may warrant greater attention in future healthy ageing strategies."

Key Findings

Four distinct intrinsic capacity (IC) trajectories were identified among Chinese middle-aged and older adults.

  • Data came from participants aged 50 years and older in the WHO-SAGE China cohort.
  • A composite IC score was built from the WHO framework covering locomotion, cognition, psychological, sensory, and vitality domains.
  • Latent Class Growth Analysis and Growth Mixture Modeling identified High and Stable IC (HSI), High and Slowly Declining IC (HSDI), Moderate and Rapidly Declining IC (MRDI), and Low and Rapidly Declining IC (LRDI) trajectories.
  • The authors describe this as substantial heterogeneity in IC trajectories.

Older age was strongly associated with a greater likelihood of belonging to the LRDI trajectory.

  • OR = 5.79, 95% CI 4.73-7.10 for LRDI membership.
  • Age was also associated with other unfavorable trajectory profiles.
  • SHAP analysis identified age as the most influential contributor across all trajectories.

Female sex was associated with a greater likelihood of belonging to the LRDI trajectory.

  • OR = 2.86, 95% CI 2.18-3.75.
  • Sex was also associated with other unfavorable profiles.
  • SHAP showed sex among factors with substantial contributions across different trajectory patterns.

Comorbidity was associated with a markedly higher likelihood of LRDI membership.

  • OR = 8.15, 95% CI 5.07-13.10.
  • Comorbidity was also associated with other unfavorable trajectory profiles.
  • SHAP showed comorbidity contributed substantially across different trajectory patterns.

Socioeconomic disadvantage, including low income and low paternal education, was associated with the LRDI trajectory.

  • Low income: OR = 4.11, 95% CI 2.82-5.99.
  • Low paternal education: OR = 2.04, 95% CI 1.41-2.94.
  • SHAP showed income and education contributed substantially across trajectory patterns.

Higher physical risk scores were associated with a greater likelihood of LRDI membership.

  • OR = 1.18, 95% CI 1.02-1.37.
  • Also associated with other unfavorable profiles.

Clean cooking fuel use was associated with a much lower likelihood of belonging to the LRDI trajectory.

  • OR = 0.17, 95% CI 0.11-0.26.
  • SHAP showed cooking fuel as a substantial contributor across trajectory patterns.
  • The authors describe household cooking fuel as a potentially modifiable contextual factor.

Being married was associated with a lower likelihood of LRDI membership.

  • OR = 0.53, 95% CI 0.34-0.82.

Ambient temperature and relative humidity were among the factors with substantial contributions to trajectory membership in SHAP analysis.

  • SHAP ranked income, cooking fuel, ambient temperature, relative humidity, sex, education, and comorbidity as showing substantial contributions after age.
  • Contributions varied across different trajectory patterns.
  • The authors suggest environmental conditions may warrant greater attention in healthy ageing strategies.

What This Means

This study followed Chinese adults aged 50 and older to see how their overall physical and mental functioning, called intrinsic capacity, changes over time. Intrinsic capacity combines mobility, thinking, mood, vision and hearing, and vitality. The researchers found that people fall into four groups: some stay high and stable, some start high and decline slowly, and two groups decline rapidly from moderate or low starting levels. Older age, being female, having multiple chronic conditions, low income, having a father with little education, and higher physical risk scores were linked to a greater chance of being in the worst group (low and rapidly declining). Using clean cooking fuel and being married were linked to a lower chance of being in that group. Age mattered most overall, but income, cooking fuel, temperature, humidity, sex, education and chronic illness also contributed. This research suggests that functional decline in later life is not uniform and that factors beyond medical conditions, such as household environment and social circumstances, are associated with it. Because this is an observational study, it shows associations rather than proof of cause. It does point to cooking fuel and environmental conditions as potentially modifiable factors that could be considered in healthy ageing strategies.

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Citation

Liang Z, Liang Z, Xie L, Liang K, Hu J, Chen S, et al.. (2026). Mapping the diverse trajectories of intrinsic capacity and their key drivers in China's aging population.. Frontiers in public health. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2026.1923924