Cardiovascular

Multivariate Trajectories of Cardiometabolic Risk Factors and Complications in Elderly Chinese Patients With Type 2 Diabetes: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

TL;DR

Distinct sex-specific trajectories of cardiometabolic risk factors were associated with different risks of cardiovascular and diabetic kidney complications in elderly patients with type 2 diabetes.

Key Findings

Among elderly men with type 2 diabetes, three multivariate trajectory groups of fasting plasma glucose, LDL cholesterol, and diastolic blood pressure were identified: stable, U shape, and inverse U shape.

  • Retrospective cohort of 27,288 patients with type 2 diabetes aged ≥60 years from China's National Basic Public Health Service Program.
  • All participants had ≥3 medical examinations from 2018 to 2023.
  • Stable: 87.16% (n=7997); U shape: 3.78% (n=347); inverse U shape: 9.06% (n=831).
  • A sex-specific multivariate latent class mixed model with quadratic trajectories was used.

Among elderly women with type 2 diabetes, two trajectory groups were identified: stable and inverse U shape.

  • Stable group: 87.29% (n=15,810).
  • Inverse U-shape group: 12.71% (n=2303).
  • Trajectories were modeled separately by sex for fasting plasma glucose, LDL cholesterol, and diastolic blood pressure.

In men, the U-shape trajectory group had elevated odds of cardiovascular disease, coronary heart disease, stroke, and diabetic kidney disease.

  • Cardiovascular disease: OR 1.66 (95% CI, 1.26-2.20).
  • Coronary heart disease: OR 1.60 (95% CI, 1.09-2.33).
  • Stroke: OR 1.58 (95% CI, 1.12-2.23).
  • DKD: OR 1.39 (95% CI, 1.11-1.74).
  • Estimated with binary logistic regression.

In men, the inverse U-shape trajectory group was associated with increased odds of diabetic kidney disease.

  • DKD: OR 1.35 (95% CI, 1.16-1.57).
  • The abstract reports no elevated cardiovascular disease, coronary heart disease or stroke risk for this group.

In women, the inverse U-shape trajectory group was associated with higher odds of coronary heart disease and diabetic kidney disease.

  • Coronary heart disease: OR 1.31 (95% CI, 1.12-1.53).
  • DKD: OR 1.65 (95% CI, 1.51-1.81).
  • The reference group was the stable trajectory group.

Most elderly patients (about 87% of both men and women) followed a stable multivariate trajectory, while a minority followed adverse non-linear trajectories associated with complications.

  • Stable groups: 87.16% of men and 87.29% of women.
  • Non-stable groups were 12.84% of men and 12.71% of women.
  • Trajectories were quadratic (U or inverse U shaped).

The authors conclude that the findings support early identification and personalized management of adverse trajectories to potentially reduce long-term complications.

  • Associations differed by sex and trajectory shape.
  • The design was retrospective, using routine public health service examination data from 2018 to 2023.

What This Means

This study followed more than 27,000 Chinese adults aged 60 and older with type 2 diabetes who had at least three health checkups between 2018 and 2023. Researchers tracked three measures together over time: fasting blood sugar, LDL ("bad") cholesterol, and diastolic blood pressure. They grouped patients by how these measures changed and then compared the groups' rates of heart disease, stroke, and diabetic kidney disease. About 87% of both men and women had stable patterns. A smaller group followed a pattern in which the measures first fell and then rose (U shape) or first rose and then fell (inverse U shape). In men, the U-shape pattern was linked to higher odds of cardiovascular disease, coronary heart disease, stroke, and kidney disease, and the inverse U-shape pattern was linked to higher odds of kidney disease. In women, the inverse U-shape pattern was linked to higher odds of coronary heart disease and kidney disease. This research suggests that looking at how several risk factors change together over time, and separately for men and women, may help identify older people with diabetes who are at higher risk of complications. Because the study is retrospective and reports associations, it cannot show that these patterns cause complications. The authors suggest the findings could support earlier identification and more personalized management.

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Citation

Chen Y, Chen Y, Wang W, Zhou H, Yang H, Sun Q, et al.. (2026). Multivariate Trajectories of Cardiometabolic Risk Factors and Complications in Elderly Chinese Patients With Type 2 Diabetes: A Retrospective Cohort Study.. Journal of the American Heart Association. https://doi.org/10.1161/JAHA.125.047911