Mortality involving heart failure with hyperlipidemia increased from 0.7 to 6.8 per 100,000 population between 1999 and 2024, with persistent demographic and geographic disparities, and machine learning-based forecasting projects continued increases through 2035.
Total deaths involving heart failure with coexisting hyperlipidemia recorded on death certificates numbered 283,161 from 1999 to 2024 in the United States.
The age-adjusted mortality rate (AAMR) for heart failure with hyperlipidemia increased nearly tenfold from 0.7 to 6.8 per 100,000 population over the study period.
Mortality rates from heart failure with hyperlipidemia were higher among men than women.
Non-Hispanic Black and American Indian/Alaska Native populations experienced elevated mortality rates from heart failure with hyperlipidemia compared to other racial/ethnic groups.
Nonmetropolitan counties had higher heart failure with hyperlipidemia mortality rates than metropolitan areas.
The Midwest and West census regions of the United States had higher heart failure with hyperlipidemia mortality rates compared to other regions.
Machine learning-based SARIMA time-series models were used to project heart failure with hyperlipidemia mortality trends from 2025 through 2035.
This research suggests that deaths involving both heart failure and high cholesterol (hyperlipidemia) have increased dramatically in the United States over the past 25 years. Researchers analyzed more than 283,000 death certificates recorded between 1999 and 2024 and found that the death rate from this combination of conditions grew from 0.7 to 6.8 per 100,000 people — nearly a tenfold increase — with the rise becoming especially sharp after 2018. The researchers used a type of artificial intelligence forecasting model to project that this trend is likely to continue through 2035. The study also found significant differences in who is most affected. Men died from these conditions at higher rates than women. Non-Hispanic Black Americans and American Indian/Alaska Native people experienced higher death rates than other racial and ethnic groups. People living in rural (nonmetropolitan) counties were more affected than those in cities, and people living in the Midwest and West regions of the United States had higher rates than those in other parts of the country. This research suggests that heart failure combined with high cholesterol is a growing and unequal public health problem in the United States. The persistent gaps across racial, geographic, and sex-based lines point to the need for targeted prevention efforts and ongoing monitoring, particularly in communities and regions where rates are highest. The use of forecasting models provides an early warning that without intervention, these disparities and overall death rates are likely to worsen over the coming decade.
Ayalew B, Smith D, Kumar L, Umar M, Ali T, Jairamani S, et al.. (2026). National trends in heart failure and hyperlipidemia related mortality in the United States, 1999-2024: Demographic and regional disparities with machine learning based forecasting to 2035.. Medicine. https://doi.org/10.1097/MD.0000000000050618