OPC opening was not associated with significant changes in local economic activity, and given the absence of observed economic harms, policy debates should instead focus on the public health implications of OPCs.
Key Findings
Results
Opening of overdose prevention centers in East Harlem was not associated with statistically significant changes in consumer spending or foot traffic.
The average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) estimate (SE) for consumer spending in East Harlem was -$21.96 ($40.53), P = .16
The ATT estimate (SE) for foot traffic in East Harlem was 1.28 (5.40) visits, P = .19
Neither result reached statistical significance
Analyses used augmented synthetic control models adjusted for neighborhood-level demographic and socioeconomic features
Results
Opening of overdose prevention centers in Washington Heights was not associated with statistically significant changes in consumer spending or foot traffic.
The ATT (SE) estimate for consumer spending in Washington Heights was $14.94 ($37.38), P = .13
The ATT (SE) estimate for foot traffic in Washington Heights was 0.44 (3.54) visits, P = .97
Neither result reached statistical significance
Permutation tests and conformal inference were used to assess significance
Results
No statistically significant associations between OPC opening and local economic activity were observed at any post-OPC time point across primary or secondary analyses.
A total of 27 biweekly observations were analyzed (13 pre-OPC and 14 post-OPC periods)
Primary outcomes were foot traffic and in-person consumer spending within 10-minute walking buffers
Secondary analyses using 5-minute walking buffers and Business Improvement Districts produced consistent results
The 10-minute walking buffer analyses captured 1,259 consumer spending sites and 7,816 foot traffic sites across 2 treated buffers and 56 donor buffers
Methods
The study used anonymized mobility and consumer spending data from a period spanning before and after the opening of the first two publicly recognized OPCs in the US on November 30, 2021.
Data covered June 1, 2021, to June 13, 2022, in neighborhoods surrounding East Harlem and Washington Heights OPCs in NYC
Neighborhoods were defined using 5-minute and 10-minute walking buffers and Business Improvement Districts (BIDs)
Synthetic control donors included walking buffers and BIDs around syringe service programs without OPCs and opioid treatment programs operational as of OPC opening
Analyses were conducted from February to July 2025
Allen B, Basaraba C, Chambers L, Behrends C, Marshall B, Cerdá M. (2026). Overdose Prevention Centers and Neighborhood Commercial Activity in New York City.. JAMA network open. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2025.59863