Prognostic value of the lactate-albumin ratio and development of a nomogram-based prediction model in patients with acute myocardial infarction-associated cardiogenic shock.
LAR is a meaningful indicator for early mortality risk in AMI-CS, and a nomogram incorporating LAR with conventional clinical indicators achieved an AUC of 0.928, outperforming existing risk scores including CardShock, APACHE II, and blood lactate alone.
Key Findings
Results
LAR was significantly higher in patients who died in-hospital compared to survivors among AMI-CS patients.
Median LAR (interquartile range) was 2.82 [0.93–4.2] in the in-hospital mortality group versus 0.59 [0.42–1.54] in the survival group.
The difference was statistically significant (P = .002).
The study enrolled 129 AMI-CS patients: 106 survivors and 23 in-hospital deaths.
Patients were admitted to the cardiac care unit of Renmin Hospital between November 2022 and December 2024.
Results
LAR was an independent predictor of in-hospital mortality with an optimal cutoff value of 1.997.
The best cutoff value for LAR was 1.997, yielding 65% sensitivity and 82% specificity.
LAR had an odds ratio of 1.495 (95% CI: 1.174–1.904, P = .001) in multivariable logistic regression.
LAR achieved an AUC of 0.767 for predicting in-hospital mortality.
LAR outperformed blood lactate alone, which had an AUC of 0.749.
Variables were initially screened using LASSO regression before multivariable logistic analysis.
Results
Five independent predictors of in-hospital mortality were identified: LAR, cold and clammy skin, aspartate aminotransferase, C-reactive protein, and left ventricular ejection fraction less than 40%.
These predictors were identified through LASSO regression followed by multivariable logistic regression analysis.
Cold and clammy skin, AST, CRP, and LVEF <40% were included alongside LAR as independent predictors.
These five variables were used to construct the nomogram-based prediction model.
Results
The nomogram-based prediction model achieved an AUC of 0.928, outperforming existing risk scores.
The nomogram AUC of 0.928 exceeded CardShock (AUC 0.782), APACHE II (AUC 0.727), and blood lactate (AUC 0.749).
The model demonstrated excellent calibration with a mean absolute error of 0.04.
Goodness-of-fit was confirmed by Hosmer-Lemeshow test (P = .648), indicating no significant departure from perfect calibration.
Decision curve analysis indicated superior clinical usefulness compared to existing scores.
Methods
In-hospital mortality occurred in 23 of 129 enrolled AMI-CS patients, representing a mortality rate of approximately 17.8% in this cohort.
129 AMI-CS patients were enrolled in this prospective study.
23 patients were in the in-hospital mortality group and 106 were in the survivor group.
The study notes that CS is associated with in-hospital mortality rates of more than 40% in the broader literature, suggesting this cohort may reflect a selected population.
The study was conducted at a single center (cardiac care unit of Renmin Hospital) over approximately 25 months.
What This Means
This research suggests that a simple ratio calculated from two commonly measured blood values — lactate (a marker of poor oxygen delivery) and albumin (a protein that reflects nutritional and inflammatory status) — can help predict which patients with heart attack-related cardiogenic shock are at highest risk of dying in the hospital. Among 129 patients admitted with this serious condition, those who ultimately died had a lactate-to-albumin ratio (LAR) nearly five times higher than those who survived. A LAR value above approximately 2.0 identified high-risk patients with reasonable accuracy, and performed better than blood lactate measured alone.
The researchers also built a more comprehensive prediction tool called a nomogram, which combines LAR with four other clinical findings: cold and clammy skin, elevated liver enzyme (AST), elevated inflammation marker (CRP), and reduced heart pumping function (ejection fraction below 40%). This combined model was highly accurate (AUC of 0.928) and outperformed established scoring systems including CardShock and APACHE II. The model also showed good calibration, meaning its predicted probabilities closely matched actual outcomes.
This research suggests that LAR could be a practical, low-cost addition to bedside risk assessment in critically ill cardiac patients, since lactate and albumin are routinely measured in emergency and intensive care settings. The nomogram may help clinicians make faster decisions about treatment intensity for patients with heart attack-related cardiogenic shock. However, as a single-center study with a relatively small sample, these findings would benefit from validation in larger, multi-center populations before widespread clinical adoption.
Angdembe R, Wu Y, Ke Q, Jin Y, Yao L. (2026). Prognostic value of the lactate-albumin ratio and development of a nomogram-based prediction model in patients with acute myocardial infarction-associated cardiogenic shock.. Medicine. https://doi.org/10.1097/MD.0000000000050436