Cold spells were associated with higher Parkinson's disease mortality among older adults in China (cumulative OR 1.109; AF 9.83%), and under the modeled climate and ageing scenarios the cold spell-attributable burden stayed substantial in the 2030s and did not necessarily fall uniformly despite warming.
Cold spells were associated with increased Parkinson's disease mortality among adults aged 60 and older in mainland China.
A substantial fraction of PD deaths among older adults was attributable to cold spells.
Regional AF estimates varied widely, but no statistical evidence of cross-region heterogeneity was found.
Cold spell-attributable PD mortality remained substantial in the 2030s under all climate scenarios despite warming.
Under SSP1-RCP2.6, projected nationwide cold spell-attributable PD deaths were 744 in the 2030s, 988 in the 2050s, and 867 in the 2080s, with wide confidence intervals.
Under higher-emission scenarios, the projected cold spell-attributable burden declined over time, more steeply under SSP5-RCP8.5.
Scenario-specific burden patterns accompanied substantial differences in projected cold spell occurrence, so future cold-related PD mortality cannot be inferred from mean warming alone.
The persistence of cold-related PD mortality may warrant continued attention in near-term climate-health adaptation for ageing populations.
This study looked at whether cold spells raise the risk of death for older people with Parkinson's disease in China, and how this might change as the climate warms and the population ages. Using about 59,000 Parkinson's deaths among people aged 60 and older from 2013 to 2020, the researchers found that cold spells were linked to roughly 11% higher odds of death, within about four days of exposure. They estimated that nearly 10% of these deaths were attributable to cold spells. The researchers then projected the burden to the 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s under three climate scenarios. Even with warming, cold spell-related Parkinson's deaths stayed substantial in the 2030s in every scenario. After that, trends differed: the burden stayed roughly stable under the low-emission scenario, rose slightly then fell under the middle scenario, and fell more steeply under the high-emission scenario. Projected cold spell occurrence also differed between scenarios, so average warming alone did not predict the burden. This research suggests that warming may not simply remove cold-related health risks for older people with Parkinson's disease, especially as the population ages. Many projection estimates had wide uncertainty ranges that included zero, and regional differences were not statistically distinguishable, so the results should be interpreted cautiously. The findings point to cold-related risks remaining relevant for near-term planning for ageing populations.
Zheng H, Wang S, Meng Y, Zhao J, Guo Q, Chen M, et al.. (2026). Projected burden of cold spell-attributable Parkinson's disease mortality among older adults in China under climate change and population ageing.. Environmental research. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2026.125940