Cardiovascular

Trends and Disparities in Aspiration Pneumonitis Mortality With Co-Listed Stroke Among US Adults, 1999-2024: A CDC WONDER Analysis.

TL;DR

Aspiration pneumonitis mortality with co-listed stroke declined nationally among US adults from 1999 to 2024, but progress was uneven, with persistent demographic, regional, and rural disparities.

Key Findings

Overall age-adjusted mortality rates for aspiration pneumonitis with co-listed stroke declined substantially over the 25-year study period.

  • A total of 296,691 deaths were identified from 1999 through 2024.
  • The overall AAMR declined from 9.20 per 100,000 in 1999 to 3.55 per 100,000 in 2024.
  • The average annual percent change (AAPC) was -3.66% (95% CI, -4.34 to -2.97, p < 0.001).
  • Deaths were included when aspiration pneumonitis (ICD-10 J69.0) was the underlying cause and stroke (I60-I69) was a contributing cause among adults aged ≥25 years.
  • Rates were age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population using CDC WONDER multiple cause of death data.

Mortality declined among both men and women, though men had persistently higher absolute rates throughout the study period.

  • Among men, AAMR declined from 13.38 in 1999 to 4.92 in 2024 (AAPC, -3.85%, p < 0.001).
  • Among women, AAMR declined from 6.79 in 1999 to 2.46 in 2024 (AAPC, -3.92%, p < 0.001).
  • The rate of decline was similar between sexes, but men's absolute rates remained approximately twice those of women throughout the period.

Mortality declined across all four US census regions, but the South had the highest AAMR in 2024.

  • Northeast AAPC: -3.98% (p < 0.001).
  • Midwest AAPC: -3.76% (p < 0.001).
  • South AAPC: -3.93% (p < 0.001).
  • West AAPC: -3.57% (p < 0.001).
  • Despite similar rates of decline, the South retained the highest AAMR at 3.88 per 100,000 in 2024.

Mortality rates remained persistently higher in nonmetropolitan counties compared with metropolitan counties throughout the study period.

  • Nonmetropolitan county AAMR declined from 9.96 in 1999 to 4.42 in 2020 (AAPC, -4.05%, p < 0.001).
  • Metropolitan county AAMR declined from 9.02 to 3.80 over a comparable period (AAPC, -4.31%, p < 0.001).
  • Despite similar percentage declines, nonmetropolitan counties maintained higher absolute AAMRs throughout the study period, indicating a persistent rural-urban disparity.

Among non-Hispanic Black adults, the mortality trend stabilized between 2014 and 2024, suggesting a stalling of prior progress in this group.

  • The 2014–2024 trend among non-Hispanic Black adults was stable with an APC of 1.13% (p = 0.12), indicating no statistically significant change.
  • This stagnation contrasts with continued declines seen in other racial/ethnic groups during the same period.
  • The finding indicates a persistent racial disparity in aspiration pneumonitis mortality with co-listed stroke.

Mortality rates increased after 2010 among younger and middle-aged adults in the 35–64 age range, reversing prior declining trends in these groups.

  • Among adults aged 35–44 years, the APC after 2010 was +6.65% (p < 0.001).
  • Among adults aged 45–54 years, the APC after 2010 was +4.70% (p < 0.001).
  • Among adults aged 55–64 years, the APC after 2010 was +3.96% (p < 0.001).
  • These increases in younger age groups occurred despite overall national declines, suggesting a divergent epidemiological trend by age.
  • Age-specific rates reported were crude rather than age-adjusted.

The study used a retrospective, population-based serial cross-sectional design drawing on CDC WONDER multiple cause of death data spanning 1999–2024.

  • Deaths were identified using ICD-10 code J69.0 (aspiration pneumonitis) as the underlying cause of death and ICD-10 codes I60–I69 (stroke) as a contributing cause.
  • The study population was restricted to US adults aged ≥25 years.
  • Age-adjusted mortality rates were standardized to the 2000 US population and expressed per 100,000.
  • Joinpoint regression was used to estimate annual percent changes (APCs) and average annual percent changes (AAPCs).
  • The analysis covered 25 years of national mortality data (1999–2024).

What This Means

This research suggests that deaths from aspiration pneumonitis (a serious lung condition caused by inhaling food, liquid, or saliva into the lungs) that also involved stroke as a contributing factor declined substantially in the United States between 1999 and 2024. Out of nearly 297,000 such deaths identified over 25 years, the overall death rate fell by more than half — from about 9.2 per 100,000 people in 1999 to 3.6 per 100,000 in 2024. This broad national improvement likely reflects advances in stroke care, swallowing rehabilitation, and hospital infection prevention over this period. However, the declines were not equal across all groups. People living in rural areas, residents of the Southern United States, and men consistently had higher death rates throughout the study. Most strikingly, progress appeared to stall among non-Hispanic Black adults after 2014, with their death rates no longer improving, which points to ongoing racial disparities in access to quality stroke and post-stroke care. Equally concerning, death rates actually increased after 2010 among younger adults aged 35–64, a trend that runs counter to the overall national improvement and may reflect rising rates of stroke risk factors like obesity and diabetes in younger populations. This research suggests that while national-level progress in reducing aspiration pneumonitis deaths linked to stroke is real and meaningful, targeted interventions are needed for high-risk groups — particularly rural communities, Black Americans, and younger adults — where gains have been limited or have reversed. Understanding and addressing these disparities could help guide public health priorities and clinical care strategies for stroke survivors.

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Citation

Arshad M, Butt S, Munir W, Daniyal M, Daud R, Ikram W, et al.. (2026). Trends and Disparities in Aspiration Pneumonitis Mortality With Co-Listed Stroke Among US Adults, 1999-2024: A CDC WONDER Analysis.. Brain and behavior. https://doi.org/10.1002/brb3.71739